Empiricial investigation of forecast uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulation
Author: Altin Tanku, Elona Dushku, Kliti Ceca
Printed on: 09.08.2012
Production date: 09.08.2012
Material category : Not Periodic Publications / Working Papers
In 2006, the Bank of Albania decided to abandon its Monetary
Targeting regime in favour of Inflation Targeting one. Against this
setting, the Bank of Albania focused its research and analytic efforts
on the development of empirically-based models for forecasting
inflation and, in addition, one macroeconomic model, MEAM
(macro econometric model for Albania). This model aims to analyze
different scenarios and shocks in the economy, thus enabling nonnaive
forecast of main macroeconomic variables, based on current
and expected developments.